THE SPREAD of the new H1N1 flu is still getting a lot of attention. On Monday, Kansas health authorities reported three new cases of the flu, indicating its spread into the Wichita and Kansas City metro areas. That brought the state total to five cases, with one other case suspected but still unconfirmed. Nationally, the number of confirmed cases is approaching 300.
That’s not good news, but it is not bad news, either. If the H1N1 flu were a really aggressive strain, there would be a lot more cases by now. That is one of the reasons the World Health Organization is not in any hurry to declare the outbreak a pandemic, even though cases have been reported in North, Central and South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and New Zealand. On Monday, WHO was reporting 985 confirmed cases in 20 nations.
The really good news is that the H1N1 flu is, so far, rarely deadly. Of the U.S. cases, only one has proved fatal.
The slow spread of H1N1 and its relative mildness do not mean that health agencies should let down their guard or that people should feel free to ignore the risk of the disease. Even a relatively mild flu can be life-threatening to people with compromised immune systems or other health problems, and a flu that does not kill can still be debilitating and keep people from work or school for more than a week. The potential for community disruption accompanies any flu outbreak.
Also, flu viruses are capable of great changes in a short time. Such changes could make H1N1 more easily spread and more dangerous.
But so far, so good. The flu is spreading slowly and most of its victims are recovering. H1N1 does not look as if it is going to be this century’s version of the Spanish flu that caused the 1918 pandemic.
That is good news, but it is no reason for health agencies or people to let down their guard. With its combination of swine, bird and human viruses and its potential for radical mutation, H1N1 bears watching until it disappears from sight.
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