WHOEVER TAKES the oath of office in January, the next president is not going to be able to satisfy the nation’s yearning for instant fiscal healing. Enough has gone wrong in past weeks that the world seems destined for a deep recession at the least, and perhaps a depression — an economic winter whose effects will stretch for years into the future.
The news coverage continues to focus on stock prices and how the stock market behaves from minute to minute and day to day. That is understandable because so many people have their hopes for the future wrapped up in 401(k)s and other forms of retirement investment. But the stock market and its ups and downs are not the cause of economic problems, only another symptom. Stock prices are not always a sound indicator of the state of economy.
Here in Emporia, we have other indicators close at hand. The free fall in gasoline prices is good news when the time comes to fill the tank on the family car, but it reflects a free fall in the oil market, caused by reduced demand and the flight of capital from the commodities markets.
The same effect is being seen in other commodities — wheat, corn, soy beans. While these falling markets have the veneer of good news — lower gasoline and food prices — they signal deep problems in important parts of the national and world economies.
The problems — weak stock prices, falling commodity prices and retail sales, tight credit, rising unemployment and others — are part of a complex web of economic interdependency. Fixing one aspect of the problem, while it will have some effect, will not restore other parts of the economy to health.
The next president will face a long slog to get the economy moving. No executive order and no single bill passed by Congress can make things right again.
The American people, who have been mostly patient through this long, long campaign, will have to practice that patience again as they wait for the economy to be set right.