Just one issue for November?
By Patrick Kelley
Originally published 02:21 p.m., June 9, 2008
Updated 02:21 p.m., June 9, 2008
Bad times for the economy make for interesting times in politics, in the sense of the purported old Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”
The past weekend did not start well. The front page of Saturday’s Kansas City Star was topped with a triple play of bad economic news — the unemployment rate jumped by half a percent from April to May; the price of crude oil rose almost $11 a barrel in one day; and the stock market responded to the one-two punch by dropping almost 400 points in Friday’s trading.
The reports were dispiriting, but not particularly surprising. This year, economic news seems to be, by definition, bad news. One day before, Friday’s USA Today reported on its front page that high oil prices have forced the price of asphalt up by 25 percent, which is expected to result in a slowdown in road construction and repairs.
In the business section, the newspaper quoted an economist’s prediction that the record rate of home foreclosures is likely to continue at least through the end of the year.
Just a few months ago, economists were arguing whether the national economy was healthy, headed for recession or was already in a recession. Nobody seems to be arguing that point anymore. The question now is whether the economy is on the edge of a depression and, if so, how long a depression could last.
So far, neither of the major-party candidates for president has offered much in the way of specific plans to heal the economy.
But if the bad news continues to pile up, the state of the economy will become the most important issue in the November election, eclipsing the conduct of the war, national security, the state of the health-care system and all other issues that were so hard fought in the primaries.
The winner in November will be the candidate who seems most likely to be able to put people back to work, keep families in their homes, keep food on their tables and gasoline in their car’s tanks.
Anything else will take second place.