An outbreak of severe storms might sweep the Great Plains Thursday, according to predictions from meteorologists in Topeka and Wichita. The potential for a megastorm with tornadoes is great enough that forecasters want citizens to have as much advance notice as possible.
“We’ve kind of dodged the tornado bullet, so to speak,” said Craig Gold, morning meteorologist for ABC Channel 49 in Topeka. “Our luck may run out on us tomorrow.”
Gold said the atmosphere holds all the conditions necessary for exceptionally strong weather events: a strong jet stream overhead, a good supply of moisture being pumped in and a “pretty sharp dry line” that is set to move through the area during the peak-heat hours in the late afternoon.
“Once that dry line moves through with the jet stream overhead, that’s when those storms are going to start to fire,” Gold said.
The storm could produce supercell thunderstorms that are conducive to tornadoes.
“For this time of year, it’s an unusually strong system pulling through,” Gold said. “It seems as if the ingredients are coming together.”
Gold said that the model runs for weather forecasts have been consistent for the past week.
“There’s been not much as far as any deviation from, unfortunately, the doom and gloom scenario,” he said. “It’s something we’re going to have to keep watching. Right now, it’s best to get word out.”
The forecast in a story in today’s Wichita Eagle was more dire.
“Computer forecasting models for the day bear striking similarities to the conditions present on June 8, 1974, when 39 tornadoes touched down in the southern Plains and killed 22 people — including six in Emporia,” The Eagle story reported.
The Eagle story said that forecasters disagree on where the highest risk for tornadoes may be. Mike Smith, chief executive officer of WeatherData Inc., a subsidiary of AccuWeather, said that many are predicting the highest tornado risk will be in Iowa and Minnesota.
Smith’s prediction for high risk of tornadoes was on a corridor stretching from northern Oklahoma to central Iowa, the Eagle reported.
“’Certainly Wichita, Topeka, Emporia, Salina, Chanute ... essentially the eastern half of Kansas should really be paying attention on Thursday,’” the Eagle quoted Smith as saying.
“Temperature and humidity patterns for Thursday are similar to the 1974 outbreak, he said, and a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere is projected to be in exactly the same position as on June 8, 1974,” the story stated.
The 1974 tornado, which grew to about a half-mile wide, had a 38-mile track through Lyon, Osage and Shawnee counties.
In Lyon County, the tornado injured 200 people and caused an estimated $25 million in damage; it struck the Flinthills Shopping Center, the Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park, the Flint Hills Manor nursing home, a small apartment complex, residential neighborhoods and about 10 rural homes in the county.
Channel 49’s Gold was reluctant to compare conditions in 1974 to 2008. Thursday’s weather, however, holds the potential for damage.
“It’s tough to make comparisons from one storm system to another. Is the potential there? Yes,” Gold said. “Can we say for sure where tornadoes will be? No. If we did, then I’d be a pretty rich man.”
He was uneasy, however, about the verbiage from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center: “long-track strong tornados.”
“And that’s wording we don’t like to hear,” Gold said.
This morning, Topeka’s severe weather forecast had been upgraded to moderate risk, he said, and Emporia’s to “slight risk.”
Moderate risk also remained on the forecast for Thursday, and the forecast for the weekend weather looks good, he said.
Keep radios and televisions handy Thursday night, he said, and “keep your eyes to the sky and keep ’em on us, too.”
srochat (Scott Rochat) says...
Best wishes to everyone in dodging the bullet. It hasn't been so long since the Colorado county next to mine had seven tornadoes in one day; I'd just as soon see nobody else get plastered this season. God bless, folks.
Scott Rochat
Longmont, Colo.
June 4, 2008 at 8:24 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
myfluffy (anonymous) says...
Where do the people who live in trailer parks go for shelter, especially if you live on the east side of town?
June 4, 2008 at 10:04 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
b3bill (anonymous) says...
One significant difference between June 8, 1974 and the weather forecast for tomorrow is the air temperature.
The low tonight is forecast to be in the low 70's. The weather was very chilly and misting on/off most of the morning of June 8, 1974 and stayed that way until mid afternoon. It was cold enough to be wearing a jacket and still feel chilly. I worked outside that whole day and remember it very well.
The temperature really increased later that afternoon. It was a terribly pressing heat when we walked out of the west side of the Montgomery Ward's store at the mall about 5:50 p.m., while the black cloud was approaching from the southwest. We knew an awful storm was on the way, but had no idea where we were would be in the path of the F4 tornado only a few minutes later.
Hopefully tomorrow has no storms like June 8, 1974.
June 4, 2008 at 10:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
alfalfa (anonymous) says...
The forecasters have been talking about this since Saturday, at least. What I have noticed when they talk about severe weather that far ahead is either they miss it completely or it is really, really bad. We have dodged bullets like crazy so far, from what I am seeing tonight both on the NWS site and the Weather Channel, we may run out of luck tomorrow. Hope everyone can stay safe.
June 4, 2008 at 11:20 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
emporian (anonymous) says...
Here is what the storm prediction center is saying (www.spc.noaa.gov)
WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO
OUTBREAK...A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO...THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN AND ERN NEB/WRN IA.
June 4, 2008 at 11:30 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
rami (anonymous) says...
My aunt was in Walmart*it was where Sutherlands is now, for those who didn't know* when the tornado hit in 1974. I was needing to go to Sutherlands today but I changed my mind!
I pray that the predictions for today's weather are not accurate, but in this house we are praying for the best and preparing for the worst.
Stay Safe Everyone!
June 5, 2008 at 9:31 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
steakbuffet (anonymous) says...
WalMart??? Don't you mean Woolworths or Alco?
June 5, 2008 at 9:39 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jayhawker (anonymous) says...
Wal-Mart was located where Sutherland's is now until about 1994.
June 5, 2008 at 11:03 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
blulitespecial (anonymous) says...
I was a kid in Topeka June 8th '66. 3 blocks away from us,everything was destroyed. I had relatives IN the mall here in Emporia in the '74 storm.They carry a few scars still,but made it through that day. Today? I'm gonna head for the lumberyard just cuz I can...
June 5, 2008 at 12:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
abc123 (anonymous) says...
Speaking of Wal-Mart....don't waste your time looking for weather radios there...they are out as well as Radio Shack, Walgreens, Dillons.....etc. I have a regular radio but always wanted a weather radio....well now was certainly not the time to go get one! Radio shack said they have had over 30 people in before noon today looking for a weather radio....I pray that the local stations I can recieve will broadcast enough info. to keep us safe in case the power goes out!
June 5, 2008 at 12:44 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
blulitespecial (anonymous) says...
Sutherland's had a bunch of "worksite" style radios with the weatherband in them.Not sure about them being in stock today,though.I got one there a couple weeks ago that you can crank to generate power for it.
June 5, 2008 at 12:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
apsuz (anonymous) says...
I remember Woolworth's being at the mall before Wal-Mart, but I don't know how long it was there. That's the first store I remember being there, but I was born in '73, so I couldn't tell you what was there in '74. Anyway, I'm hoping that there won't be deadly tornados anywhere today. I haven't heard anything locally, but I'm in the middle of "Smith’s prediction for high risk of tornadoes was on a corridor stretching from northern Oklahoma to central Iowa" in north central Missouri.
As far as where to go in the trailer parks, I believe some of them have storm shelters (you don't mention which one you are referring too), call the owner or manager to find out. If yours doesn't, you might think about finding a friend with a basement and hang out at their house because you don't want to be caught without a safe place to go.
June 5, 2008 at 1:32 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
syewell (anonymous) says...
It was a Woolworth store prior to the tornado hitting. When the portion of the mall that was damaged was rebuilt, it was a Woolco.....same company, just a different name.
June 5, 2008 at 5:23 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
esu42 (anonymous) says...
Is there a comprehensive list of storm shelters anywhere? I wasn't able to find anything on the city or county websites.
June 5, 2008 at 5:44 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )