WITH MORE lead swaps than a NASCAR race, the competition for the Republican presidential nomination may not be settled until the final lap and the finish line — that is, the Republican National Convention.
So far in the campaign, two caucuses and two primary elections have produced three winners. Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary and the Wyoming caucus. John McCain won the New Hampshire primary. Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus. A similar pattern could continue through the rest of the primary season, leaving the pool of delegates so divided that none of the candidates would be able to claim the nomination by Sept. 1, when the convention begins.
A contested convention — complete with back-room deals, vote trading and displays of political muscle — would provide a spectacle the nation has not seen from a major party in more than 50 years. The Republican Party has not had such a convention since 1948 and the Democrats since 1952.
The hurly-burly of the old days has been replaced by productions so tightly scripted that they make television award broadcasts look badly improvised. Not surprisingly, public interest in watching the conventions has declined steadily. Why watch a boring show when you already know how it is going to come out? As fewer people tuned in to watch conventions on television, the networks began to scale back their gavel-to-gavel coverage. In recent conventions, the cameras have been turned on for the keynote speech, the vote, the acceptance speech, the balloon-drop finale, but not much else.
A contested convention would have one advantage for the Republicans. It would practically guarantee renewed interest in the convention, more airtime and more viewers. The disadvantage would be the party’s displaying its family fights for all to see.
If, say, Romney, McCain and Huckabee — and perhaps Rudy Giuliani — were to show up in St. Paul with substantial numbers of delegates, but none with enough delegates for nomination, the winnowing process would have to be completed in the confines of the convention hall under the glaring lights.
Instead of a coronation, the party would present a duel to the death. It would be great theater, but terrible politics. Contested conventions lead to hurt feelings, party schism and campaign disarray.
The strain of a bad convention could ground a political party that is already zigzagging through the air on too many wings — conservative, evangelical, moderate and libertarian.
Far better for the Republican Party if the next two months produce one clear winner and pave the way for a quiet —and politically safe — coronation.
Patrick S. Kelley
Editorial Page Editor