It’s nearly been a month since the MIAA season began and only three games are in the books, so obviously it’s time to crown a conference champion.
But there’s still two months of MIAA games to play, you say. No worries. Santa Claus brought me a crystal ball this year, and the picture is clear: The Emporia State women will be the conference champs this season.
The Lady Hornets have been the best team after three conference games, and they are far from peaking. Emporia State is in prime position to contend for the title with a win on the road at Central Missouri already out of the way. The Jennies are the third-best team in the MIAA this season.
Emporia State is tied with Washburn and Pittsburg State at 3-0 at the top of the conference with Fort Hays State looming at 2-0. But don’t be fooled by the Gorillas and Tigers fast start; the conference championship will belong to one of the two turnpike schools.
Washburn is for real and has done nothing to undo its preseason selection by the coaches as the favorite to win the league. The Lady Blues are 10-0 and ranked second in the country in the latest ESPN/USA Today/WBCA Top 25.
Emporia State is ranked ninth and has one blemish on its record, a 79-70 loss at Texas A&M-Kingsville, where the Lady Hornets blew a 19-point lead.
The loss will serve as a blessing in disguise for the Lady Hornets, who will no longer take any team for granted this season.
The Lady Hornets have played with a chip on their shoulder since the loss. They seem to feel like they have something to prove. They go out wanting to make a statement every night, and they have. They’re winning by an average of 36.9 points per game. Washburn has the second-best scoring margin in the league at 18.5 points per game.
Statistically, the Lady Hornets are the best team in the league. They average a league-best 91.6 points per game, and they’re second in the league in scoring defense, holding opponents to 54.7 points per game, compared to 51.l for Washburn.
Even though Washburn is at the top, Emporia State arguably has the best defensive team, because the Lady Hornets play a more up-tempo game with more possessions — hence more chances to score for the opposition. With better athletes and better players, Emporia State is less likely to get upset because an inferior opponent’s best chance at an upset is to limit the possessions.
Coming into this season, coach Brandon Schneider wanted to see his team improve on the defensive end. He said his team last season was one of the worst defensive teams he had ever coached. This team might be the best.
The Lady Hornets added one player to their roster in Sophia Lenard, and Lenard has become the team’s best perimeter defender. She’s quick and has a long reach that irritates opposing guards.
The biggest strength of the ESU defense is inside, where MIAA-leading shot-blocker Alli Volkens and Ida Edwards make it difficult to score in the paint. Northwest Missouri coach Gene Steinmeyer told me earlier this season that Edwards is the best defensive player in the conference, and he said she also might be the best offensively.
The Lady Hornets are definitely the best defensively, and the numbers support that claim. Their field goal defense (32.2 percent) is the best in the league and they have the best rebounding margin, plus-16.5. Edwards is the league’s top rebounder, averaging 11.5 boards per game.
Offensively, Emporia State is still trying to find its way, but obviously the growing pains haven’t been too tough, averaging 91.6 points per game.
The loss of Michelle Stueve has made the Lady Hornets a more balanced team, but they’ve been searching for an identity on offense in the first few months of the season. They went through a stretch where they fell in love with the 3-pointer and did not get Edwards enough touches in the paint.
Then in the last conference game at Central Missouri, the Lady Hornets started turning down open 3-pointers in the first half and were not as efficient as they had been. However, they started to take the open threes in the second half and they scored 50 points.
With the MIAA down this season after the top three teams, Emporia State should go undefeated against the entire league other than Washburn.
Pitt State and Fort Hays State should be applauded for their fast starts, but they will not contend with Washburn and Emporia State. Pitt State has wins over three winless teams in the conference.
Fort Hays State’s two conference wins came against winless Missouri Western and one-win Nebraska-Omaha. The Tigers, who were picked to finish 10th in the conference, might be an MIAA surprise, but they are in not in the same league as Emporia State and Washburn. They proved as much in the Lady Hornets Classic when they lost to Avila, the same team that lost to Emporia State 85-30. The Lady Blues should also be perfect against everyone other than Emporia State, although winning at Central Missouri is no easy task.
Washburn has played the more difficult nonconference schedule this season and has two wins over ranked opponents, while the Lady Hornets are yet to play a ranked foe, but they own the most impressive conference win thus far.
The conference championship will come down to the two meetings between Emporia State and Washburn, at ESU on Jan. 17 and at Washburn on Feb. 25.
The Lady Hornets will be the underdog, but that is a role that they will enjoy. They like having that chip on their shoulder, and a look into the crystal ball has the Lady Hornets winning their first meeting. As for the Feb. 25 game at Washburn, it’s sort of foggy, but at least a share of the conference title is crystal clear.
admireed (anonymous) says...
CJ...would you like to take another look at this projection after the WU and ESU home lossed Saturday?
January 4, 2009 at 11:02 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )