WHEN THE LEGISLATURE returns on April 30, it will have a lot of work to do. On some issues, lawmakers will have to revisit the work they did earlier in the session.
The problem the lawmakers face is this: The state’s revenue projections are lower than expected. The state’s panel of economic experts say their earlier prediction of revenues of $6.17 billion in fiscal year 2009 was too high. Several factors have changed since the original prediction was made — including federal tax cuts that will be reflected in state tax revenues. State law ties Kansas taxes to the federal tax code.
The new prediction is for revenue of $6.02 billion, about $150 million less than expected. That kind of money is pocket change for Congress, but for a state like Kansas, the loss is troubling. With so many spending issues on the table now — school aid, higher education, health care — the lawmakers will have their hands full trying to decide what to trim.
The legislators are left in the awkward position of a guy who orders dinner thinking he has a $50 bill in his pocket, only to discover at the end of the evening that it is a $20 bill.
The news was not all bad. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and the economists both pointed out the Kansas is economically healthy at the moment, thanks to high oil and commodity prices and an increasing demand for aircraft. The state government may take in less money than expected next year, but Kansas seems to be in better shape than many other states.
Don’t expect that to cheer up the Legislature. It has been said that if every cloud has a silver lining, then every silver lining must have a cloud. In the short time remaining in the 2008 session, expect the lawmakers to keep their focus on the cloud.
That’s not pessimism, but practical politics. At the end of the session, it will not matter whether people see the glass as half empty or half full. All that will matter is how much water is in the glass and how many Kansans can get a drink from it.