A YEAR OR TWO ago, Heather’s grandfather told me what he thought the most popular bumper sticker of 2008 would be. It would simply read: RUN, HILLARY, RUN.
“It’s perfect because if you support her, you can put it on the rear bumper of your car,” he said. “And if you oppose her, you can put it on the front bumper.”
OK, so it’s a little dark. But it makes a point that needs to be made all too well.
Hillary Clinton, of course, is running. In perhaps the least surprising political move of the year, the junior senator from New York and former First Lady threw her hat into the ring on Saturday. A Reuters poll on Sunday showed her with the support of 41 percent of the Democrats surveyed, far outdistancing every candidate in the field.
She should enjoy the moment while it lasts. Because I don’t think it will last long.
Don’t get me wrong. I have no doubts about Hillary’s ability. I know she’s smart. I know she’s strong-willed. And I know she’s got the kind of financial backing that most candidates only dream of.
But I also know she doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in 2008.
In essence, it comes down to name recognition.
There’s an irony in that. For most politicians, the great challenge is to make your name into a household word. Candidates want to be the next Ronald Reagan or the next John Kennedy. They don’t want to be the next Lamar Alexander.
Hillary has that recognition. In fact, she has it in spades. And that’s the problem. Most folks have made up their mind about her long before they get anywhere near a voting booth.
Those who love her really, really love her. Those who hate her really, really hate her. There aren’t many people in the middle ground.
She could still win the nomination. She has a lot of passionate supporters in the Democratic party and if there’s one thing the Clinton family knows how to do, it’s campaign. But her double-edged popularity could cut her badly in the general election. Many people in the GOP have been running against her for years anyway — how much more will they step up the tempo if she becomes the candidate?
And if she wins? The four years that follow the election could be even more divisive than the four months before it. With passions for and against her running so high, day-to-day governing is likely to be stormy no matter who controls the Congress. Bill managed, but he had a certain talent for accommodation. Hillary tends to meet conflicts head-on — to her benefit and detriment.
We’ve already had six years under a president who turned out to be more of a divider than a uniter. Do we really need another one?
Now, I have no expectation that Hillary will pay any attention to me (she’s been really bad about renewing her subscription lately). But it has to be said. And I doubt I’m the only one who’s saying it, even among her supporters.
I don’t hold her any malice. I don’t wish her ill. But I don’t think this will be, or should be, her year.
The truth is, Hillary Clinton would probably be a far better kingmaker than a king. If she puts her well-funded, well-organized base of support behind any other candidate, she could all but assure victory. But like a character in a bizarre fairy tale, the only person her magic won’t work on is herself.
She’s got the initiative. Now she has to decide what she wants to do with it.
Run, Hillary, run.
But which way will you go?
Scott Rochat’s e-mail address is rochat@emporiagazette.com.